The Model Thinker

Work with data like a pro using this guide that breaks down how to organize, apply, and most importantly, understand what you are analyzing in order to become a true data ninja. From the stock market to genomics laboratories, census figures to marketing email blasts, we are awash with data. But as anyone who has ever opened up a spreadsheet packed with seemingly infinite lines of data knows, numbers aren't enough: we need to know how to make those numbers talk. In The Model Thinker, social scientist Scott E. Page shows us the mathematical, statistical, and computational models—from linear regression to random walks and far beyond—that can turn anyone into a genius. At the core of the book is Page's "many-model paradigm," which shows the reader how to apply multiple models to organize the data, leading to wiser choices, more accurate predictions, and more robust designs. The Model Thinker provides a toolkit for business people, students, scientists, pollsters, and bloggers to make them better, clearer thinkers, able to leverage data and information to their advantage.

How anyone can become a data whiz From the stock market to COVID-19 charts, census figures to marketing email blasts, we are awash with data. But as anyone who's ever opened up a spreadsheet packed with seemingly infinite lines of data knows, numbers aren't enough: we need to know how to make those numbers talk. In The Model Thinker, social scientist Scott E. Page shows us the mathematical and statistical models-from linear regression to random walks and beyond-that can turn anyone into a data genius. At the core of the book is Page's "many-model paradigm," which shows us how to organize data with multiple models, leading to wiser choices, more accurate predictions, and more robust designs. Whether you're a scientist, pollster, blogger, or business person, The Model Thinker offers a toolkit for becoming a better, clearer thinker, able to leverage data and information to your advantage.

Work with data like a pro using this guide that breaks down how to organize, apply, and most importantly, understand what you are analyzing in order to become a true data ninja. From the stock market to genomics laboratories, census figures to marketing email blasts, we are awash with data. But as anyone who has ever opened up a spreadsheet packed with seemingly infinite lines of data knows, numbers aren't enough: we need to know how to make those numbers talk. In The Model Thinker, social scientist Scott E. Page shows us the mathematical, statistical, and computational models—from linear regression to random walks and far beyond—that can turn anyone into a genius. At the core of the book is Page's "many-model paradigm," which shows the reader how to apply multiple models to organize the data, leading to wiser choices, more accurate predictions, and more robust designs. The Model Thinker provides a toolkit for business people, students, scientists, pollsters, and bloggers to make them better, clearer thinkers, able to leverage data and information to their advantage.

This is the second book in The Great Mental Models series and the highly anticipated follow up to the Wall Street Journal best seller, Volume 1: General Thinking Concepts. We tend to isolate the things we know in the domain we learned it. For example: What does the inertia of a rolling stone have to do with perseverance and being open minded? How can the ancient process of steel production make you a more creative and innovative thinker? What does the replication of our skin cells have to do with being a stronger and more effective leader? On the surface, these concepts may appear to be dissimilar and unrelated. But the surprising truth is the hard sciences (physics, chemistry, and biology) offer a wealth of useful tools you can use to develop critically important skills like: * Relationship building * Leadership * Communication * Creativity * Curiosity * Problem solving * Decision-making This second volume of the Great Mental Models series shows you how to make those connections. It explores the core ideas from the hard sciences and offers nearly two dozen models to add to your mental toolbox. You'll not only get a better understanding of the forces that influence the world around you, but you'll learn how to direct those forces to create outsized advantages in the areas of your life that matter most to you.

A new theory proposes that thinking is a learned action. In this remarkable monograph, Derek Melser argues that the core assumption of both folk psychology and cognitive science—that thinking goes on in the head—is mistaken. Melser argues that thinking is not an intracranial process of any kind, mental or neural, but is rather a learned action of the person. After an introduction in which he makes a prima facie case that thinking is an action, Melser reviews action-based theories of thinking advanced by Ryle, Vygotsky, Hampshire and others. He then presents his own theory of "token concerting," according to which thinking is a special kind of token performance, by the individual, of certain social, concerted activity. He examines the developmental role of concerted activity, the token performance of concerted activity, the functions of speech, the mechanics and uses of covert tokening, empathy, the origins of solo action, the actional nature of perception, and various kinds and aspects of mature thinking. In addition, he analyzes the role of metaphors in the folk notion of mind. While intending his theory as a contribution to the philosophy of mind, Melser aims also at a larger goal: to establish actions as a legitimate philosophical given, self-explanatory and sui generis. To this end, he argues in the final chapter against the possibility of scientific explanation of actions. The Act of Thinking opens up a large new area for philosophical research.

The classic book on systems thinking—with more than half a million copies sold worldwide! "This is a fabulous book... This book opened my mind and reshaped the way I think about investing."—Forbes "Thinking in Systems is required reading for anyone hoping to run a successful company, community, or country. Learning how to think in systems is now part of change-agent literacy. And this is the best book of its kind."—Hunter Lovins In the years following her role as the lead author of the international bestseller, Limits to Growth—the first book to show the consequences of unchecked growth on a finite planet—Donella Meadows remained a pioneer of environmental and social analysis until her untimely death in 2001. Thinking in Systems is a concise and crucial book offering insight for problem solving on scales ranging from the personal to the global. Edited by the Sustainability Institute’s Diana Wright, this essential primer brings systems thinking out of the realm of computers and equations and into the tangible world, showing readers how to develop the systems-thinking skills that thought leaders across the globe consider critical for 21st-century life. Some of the biggest problems facing the world—war, hunger, poverty, and environmental degradation—are essentially system failures. They cannot be solved by fixing one piece in isolation from the others, because even seemingly minor details have enormous power to undermine the best efforts of too-narrow thinking. While readers will learn the conceptual tools and methods of systems thinking, the heart of the book is grander than methodology. Donella Meadows was known as much for nurturing positive outcomes as she was for delving into the science behind global dilemmas. She reminds readers to pay attention to what is important, not just what is quantifiable, to stay humble, and to stay a learner. In a world growing ever more complicated, crowded, and interdependent, Thinking in Systems helps readers avoid confusion and helplessness, the first step toward finding proactive and effective solutions.

The old saying goes, ''To the man with a hammer, everything looks like a nail.'' But anyone who has done any kind of project knows a hammer often isn't enough. The more tools you have at your disposal, the more likely you'll use the right tool for the job - and get it done right. The same is true when it comes to your thinking. The quality of your outcomes depends on the mental models in your head. And most people are going through life with little more than a hammer. Until now. The Great Mental Models: General Thinking Concepts is the first book in The Great Mental Models series designed to upgrade your thinking with the best, most useful and powerful tools so you always have the right one on hand. This volume details nine of the most versatile, all-purpose mental models you can use right away to improve your decision making, productivity, and how clearly you see the world. You will discover what forces govern the universe and how to focus your efforts so you can harness them to your advantage, rather than fight with them or worse yet- ignore them. Upgrade your mental toolbox and get the first volume today. AUTHOR BIOGRAPHY Farnam Street (FS) is one of the world's fastest growing websites, dedicated to helping our readers master the best of what other people have already figured out. We curate, examine and explore the timeless ideas and mental models that history's brightest minds have used to live lives of purpose. Our readers include students, teachers, CEOs, coaches, athletes, artists, leaders, followers, politicians and more. They're not defined by gender, age, income, or politics but rather by a shared passion for avoiding problems, making better decisions, and lifelong learning. AUTHOR HOME Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

If you want to be as successful as Jack Welch, Larry Bossidy, or Michael Dell, read their autobiographical advice books, right? Wrong, says Roger Martin in The Opposable Mind. Though following best practice can help in some ways, it also poses a danger: By emulating what a great leader did in a particular situation, you'll likely be terribly disappointed with your own results. Why? Your situation is different. Instead of focusing on what exceptional leaders do, we need to understand and emulate how they think. Successful businesspeople engage in what Martin calls integrative thinking creatively resolving the tension in opposing models by forming entirely new and superior ones. Drawing on stories of leaders as diverse as AG Lafley of Procter & Gamble, Meg Whitman of eBay, Victoria Hale of the Institute for One World Health, and Nandan Nilekani of Infosys, Martin shows how integrative thinkers are relentlessly diagnosing and synthesizing by asking probing questions including: What are the causal relationships at work here? and What are the implied trade-offs? Martin also presents a model for strengthening your integrative thinking skills by drawing on different kinds of knowledge including conceptual and experiential knowledge. Integrative thinking can be learned, and The Opposable Mind helps you master this vital skill.

Move Beyond Trade-Off Thinking When it comes to our hardest choices, it can seem as though making trade-offs is inevitable. But what about those crucial times when accepting the obvious trade-off just isn't good enough? What do we do when the choices in front of us don't get us what we need? In those cases, rather than choosing the least worst option, we can use the models in front of us to create a new and superior answer. This is integrative thinking. First introduced by world-renowned strategic thinker Roger Martin in The Opposable Mind, integrative thinking is an approach to problem solving that uses opposing ideas as the basis for innovation. Now, in Creating Great Choices, Martin and his longtime thinking partner Jennifer Riel vividly illustrate how integrative thinking works, and how to do it. The book includes fresh stories of successful integrative thinkers that will demystify the process of creative problem solving, as well as practical tools and exercises to help readers engage with the ideas. And it lays out the authors' four-step methodology for creating great choices, which can be applied in virtually any context. The result is a replicable, thoughtful approach to finding a "third and better way" to make important choices in the face of unacceptable trade‐offs. Insightful and instructive, Creating Great Choices blends storytelling, theory, and hands-on advice to help any leader or manager facing a tough choice.

"Data describe and represent the world. However, no matter how big they may be, data sets don't - indeed cannot - capture everything. Data are measurements - and, as such, they represent only what has been measured. They don't necessarily capture all the information that is relevant to the questions we may want to ask. If we do not take into account what may be missing/unknown in the data we have, we may find ourselves unwittingly asking questions that our data cannot actually address, come to mistaken conclusions, and make disastrous decisions. In this book, David Hand looks at the ubiquitous phenomenon of "missing data." He calls this "dark data" (making a comparison to "dark matter" - i.e., matter in the universe that we know is there, but which is invisible to direct measurement). He reveals how we can detect when data is missing, the types of settings in which missing data are likely to be found, and what to do about it. It can arise for many reasons, which themselves may not be obvious - for example, asymmetric information in wars; time delays in financial trading; dropouts in clinical trials; deliberate selection to enhance apparent performance in hospitals, policing, and schools; etc. What becomes clear is that measuring and collecting more and more data (big data) will not necessarily lead us to better understanding or to better decisions. We need to be vigilant to what is missing or unknown in our data, so that we can try to control for it. How do we do that? We can be alert to the causes of dark data, design better data-collection strategies that sidestep some of these causes - and, we can ask better questions of our data, which will lead us to deeper insights and better decisions"--

An overview of current models of biological systems, reflecting the major advances that have been made over the past decade.

In Go To, Steve Lohr chronicles the history of software from the early days of complex mathematical codes mastered by a few thousand to today's era of user-friendly software and over six million professional programmers worldwide. Lohr maps out the unique seductions of programming, and gives us an intimate portrait of the peculiar kind of genius that is drawn to this blend of art, science, and engineering, introducing us to the movers and shakers of the 1950s and the open-source movement of today. With original reporting and deft storytelling, Steve Lohr shows us how software transformed the world, and what it holds in store for our future.

THE MUCH ANTICIPATED THIRD INSTALLMENT IN THE WALL STREET JOURNAL BESTSELLING SERIES 'THE GREAT MENTAL MODELS'. Solve problems. Think with clarity. Achieve your goals. The secret to better decision-making is learning things that won't change. Mastering a small number of versatile concepts with broad applicability enables you to rapidly grasp new areas, identify patterns, and understand how the world works. Don't waste your time on knowledge with an expiry date - focus on the fundamentals. The Farnam Street latticework of mental models gives you the durable cognitive tools you need to avoid problems and make better decisions. A mental model is a representation of how something works. Constructing mental models helps you to navigate the world efficiently and intelligently. Time and time again, great thinkers such as Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett have found mental models indispensable in both solving problems and preventing them in the first place. Cultivating stronger mental models is one of the most powerful things you can do to become a better thinker. The Great Mental Models: Volume 3 covers essential models from mathematics and systems. In part one, you'll learn mental models from systems, helping you see unexpected connections and avoid costly mistakes. You'll discover how these concepts govern the behaviors and interactions in your life. Part one covers topics such as how to: Identify the right feedback loops to adjust for behavior change (your own and others') Leverage bottlenecks to supercharge your innovative capabilities Scale up businesses and other endeavors without damaging their longevity Reduce risk and preventing disaster by knowing when to incorporate a margin of safety Construct reliable algorithms in your mind for predictable success to get the results you want every time In part two, you'll learn mental models from mathematics that reveal logical patterns in the world. This isn't your high school math class. Part two covers topics such as how to: Reap exponential gains by investing in knowledge, relationships, and experiences that compound Utilize the surprising power of sample sizes to reshape your perspective and open your mind Embrace randomness to become less predictable and more creative Identify the fundamental components of systems that lead to failure if neglected - so you can focus your energy where it matters most Mastering The Great Mental Models helps you thrive in an uncertain world. The right cognitive tools prepare you for any type of challenge. From parenting to healthy eating, relationships to personal productivity, and from learning to product design, this book will give you new lenses for understanding life. A wonderful resource you'll keep returning to year after year. As you incorporate the models in this book into your mental toolbox, you'll see the world with fresh eyes. START BUILDING YOUR LATTICEWORK TODAY! Praise for The Great Mental Models series: "I'm really glad this exists in the world and I can see that I will be recommending it often." -- Matt Mullenweg, co-founder of WordPress, founder and CEO of Automattic "If you've read Charlie Munger's Almanack this is the book you deeply crave in its wake. ... Learn the big ideas from the big disciplines and you'll be able to twist and turn problems in interesting ways at unprecedented speeds. ... You owe yourself this book." -- Simon Eskildsen "This is what non-fiction books should aspire to be like. Informative, concise, universal, practical, visual, sharing stories and examples for context. Definitely, a must-read if you're into universal multi-disciplinary thinking." -- Carl Rannaberg "I can truly say it is one of the best books I've ever had the pleasure of getting lost in. I loved the book and the challenges to conventional wisdom and thinking it presents." -- Rod Berryman "Want to learn? Read This! This should be a standard text for high school and university students." -- Code Cubitt

During the last two centuries, the way economic science is done has changed radically: it has become a social science based on mathematical models in place of words. This book describes and analyses that change - both historically and philosophically - using a series of case studies to illuminate the nature and the implications of these changes. It is not a technical book; it is written for the intelligent person who wants to understand how economics works from the inside out. This book will be of interest to economists and science studies scholars (historians, sociologists and philosophers of science). But it also aims at a wider readership in the public intellectual sphere, building on the current interest in all things economic and on the recent failure of the so-called economic model, which has shaped our beliefs and the world we live in.

NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER The guru to the gurus at last shares his knowledge with the rest of us. Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman's seminal studies in behavioral psychology, behavioral economics, and happiness studies have influenced numerous other authors, including Steven Pinker and Malcolm Gladwell. In Thinking, Fast and Slow, Kahneman at last offers his own, first book for the general public. It is a lucid and enlightening summary of his life's work. It will change the way you think about thinking. Two systems drive the way we think and make choices, Kahneman explains: System One is fast, intuitive, and emotional; System Two is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. Examining how both systems function within the mind, Kahneman exposes the extraordinary capabilities as well as the biases of fast thinking and the pervasive influence of intuitive impressions on our thoughts and our choices. Engaging the reader in a lively conversation about how we think, he shows where we can trust our intuitions and how we can tap into the benefits of slow thinking, contrasting the two-system view of the mind with the standard model of the rational economic agent. Kahneman's singularly influential work has transformed cognitive psychology and launched the new fields of behavioral economics and happiness studies. In this path-breaking book, Kahneman shows how the mind works, and offers practical and enlightening insights into how choices are made in both our business and personal lives--and how we can guard against the mental glitches that often get us into trouble.

30 Practical and applicable guidelines to think smarter, faster, and with expert insight (even if you aren’t one). Mental models are like giving a treasure map to someone lost in the woods. They provide instant understanding, context, and most importantly, a path to the end destination. Now imagine having such a map for all problems and decisions in your life. Battle information overwhelm, focus on what really matters, and make complex decisions with speed and confidence. Mental Models: 30 Thinking Tools sheds light on true intelligence: it’s not about knowledge and knowing the capitals of all the countries in the world. It’s about how you think, and each mental model is a specific framework on how to think smart and with insight. You can approach the world by trying to analyze each piece of information separately, or you can learn mental models that do the work for you. Learn how billionaires/CEOs, Olympic athletes, and scientists think differently and avoid mistakes. Peter Hollins has studied psychology and peak human performance for over a dozen years and is a bestselling author. He has worked with a multitude of individuals to unlock their potential and path towards success. His writing draws on his academic, coaching, and research experience.

A life of glamour and tragedy, set against the watershed cultural and political movements of twentieth-century Europe. "Toto" Koopman (1908–1991) is a new addition to the set of iconoclastic women whose biographies intrigue and inspire modern-day readers. Like her contemporaries Lee Miller or Vita Sackville-West, Toto lived with an independent spirit more typical of the men of her generation, moving in the worlds of fashion, society, art, and politics with an insouciant ease that would stir both admiration and envy even today. Sphinxlike and tantalizing, Toto conducted her life as a game, driven by audacity and style. Jean-Noël Liaut chases his enigmatic subject through the many roles and lives she inhabited, both happy and tragic. Though her beauty, charisma, and taste for the extraordinary made her an exuberant fixture of Paris fashion and café society, her intelligence and steely sense of self drove her toward bigger things, culminating in espionage during WWII, for which she was imprisoned by the Nazis in Ravensbruck. After the horrors of the camp, she found solace in Erica Brausen, the German art dealer who launched the career of Francis Bacon, and the two women lived out their lives together surrounded by cultural luminaries like Edmonde Charles-Roux and Luchino Visconti. But even in her later decades, Toto remained impossible for anyone to possess. The Many Lives of Miss K explores the allure of a freethinking and courageous woman who, fiercely protective of her independence, was sought after by so many but ultimately known by very few.

Would you like to have better solutions to your problems? Struggling to understand why things went wrong when you did everything right? Learn to Think in Systems can help you with these problems. Systems surround us and we might not even be aware of it. Your household is a system. The bakery on the corner is a system. Your class at school, your department at work, and your weekend soccer team made of wholehearted dads is a system too. You are a vital part of more complex systems like your country, the economy, or the world; learn about their changing nature, and find optimal solutions to problems related to them. The world is more connected than ever thanks to innovations like telephone, television, computers, and internet. The way we sense reality changed significantly. Using conventional thinking to understand the world as it functions today is not enough. We need to know the elements of systems thinking to see beyond simple cause-effect connections. This book will help you to find strategic solutions to every complex, modern problem. Learn To Think in Systems focuses on the nine fundamental system archetypes; our mental models related to them, and the step-by-step implication methods to fix them. Learn to use systems archetypes to solve your problems at work, in your business, in your relationship, and social connections. See through the motivations and understand the drives of contemporary politics, economics, and education. Widen your perspective, think critically, analyze deeply, clear your vision, be more logical and rational just by applying systems thinking. Think differently and get different results. -Learn the language of systems thinking. -Apply the best systems thinking ideas, models, and frameworks in your cognitive and decision-making process. -Learn to understand, design, and find solutions to the main system problems called 'archetypes.' Complexity, organizational pathways, and networks gain more and more importance in our interconnected world. Learn To Think in Systems gives you real-life examples to make the adoption process of this type of thinking smooth. Define your problems more accurately, find better, long-lasting solutions to your problems, learn to create strategic plans using systems diagrams, and understand your place and power over the world.

“An intellectual feast, learned, lucid, challenging and accessible.” —San Francisco Chronicle “Ideas crackle” in this triumphant final book of Tony Judt, taking readers on “a wild ride through the ideological currents and shoals of 20th century thought.” (Los Angeles Times) The final book of the brilliant historian and indomitable public critic Tony Judt, Thinking the Twentieth Century maps the issues and concerns of a turbulent age on to a life of intellectual conflict and engagement. The twentieth century comes to life as an age of ideas—a time when, for good and for ill, the thoughts of the few reigned over the lives of the many. Judt presents the triumphs and the failures of prominent intellectuals, adeptly explaining both their ideas and the risks of their political commitments. Spanning an era with unprecedented clarity and insight, Thinking the Twentieth Century is a tour-de-force, a classic engagement of modern thought by one of the century’s most incisive thinkers. The exceptional nature of this work is evident in its very structure—a series of intimate conversations between Judt and his friend and fellow historian Timothy Snyder, grounded in the texts of the time and focused by the intensity of their vision. Judt's astounding eloquence and range are here on display as never before. Traversing the complexities of modern life with ease, he and Snyder revive both thoughts and thinkers, guiding us through the debates that made our world. As forgotten ideas are revisited and fashionable trends scrutinized, the shape of a century emerges. Judt and Snyder draw us deep into their analysis, making us feel that we too are part of the conversation. We become aware of the obligations of the present to the past, and the force of historical perspective and moral considerations in the critique and reform of society, then and now. In restoring and indeed exemplifying the best of intellectual life in the twentieth century, Thinking the Twentieth Century opens pathways to a moral life for the twenty-first. This is a book about the past, but it is also an argument for the kind of future we should strive for: Thinking the Twentieth Century is about the life of the mind—and the mindful life. Judt's book, Ill Fares the Land, republished in 2021 featuring a new preface by bestselling author of Between the World and Me and The Water Dancer, Ta-Nehisi Coates.

Most companies today have innovation envy. Many make genuine efforts to be innovative: they spend on R & D, bring in creative designers, hire innovation consultants; but they still get disappointing results. Roger Martin argues that to innovate and win, companies need 'design thinking'.