The Coming Collapse Of China

Beneath the veneer of modernization, the government of the People's Republic of China is corrupt and weak and - the author (a Chinese lawyer) predicts - has five, perhaps ten, years before it falls. Economic failure will be the trigger, and there is also the probability of a war with Taiwan.

China is hot. The world sees a glorious future for this sleeping giant, three times larger than the United States, predicting it will blossom into the world's biggest economy by 2010. According to Chang, however, a Chinese-American lawyer and China specialist, the People's Republic is a paper dragon. Peer beneath the veneer of modernization since Mao's death, and the symptoms of decay are everywhere: Deflation grips the economy, state-owned enterprises are failing, banks are hopelessly insolvent, foreign investment continues to decline, and Communist party corruption eats away at the fabric of society. Beijing's cautious reforms have left the country stuck midway between communism and capitalism, Chang writes. With its impending World Trade Organization membership, for the first time China will be forced to open itself to foreign competition, which will shake the country to its foundations. Economic failure will be followed by government collapse. Covering subjects from party politics to the Falun Gong to the government's insupportable position on Taiwan, Chang presents a thorough and very chilling overview of China's present and not-so-distant future.

Fully revised and updated edition covering China's new membership of the WTO and with a new introduction. 'Damning data and persuasive arguments that should set some Communist knees a-knocking.' Kirkus Reviews'A compelling account of the rot in China's institutions and the forces at work to end the Communist Party's monopoly on power.' James A. Dorn, Cato Institute, Washington D. C., Co-Editor of China's future: Constructive Partner or Emerging Threat? 'Quite simply the best book I know about China's future. Gordon Chang writes marvellously and knows China well. I hope everyone concerned with that country will pay careful consideration to what he sees ahead.' Arthur Waldron, Director of Asian Studies, American Enterprise Institute; Lauder Professor of International Relations, University of Pennsylvania.'A tour de force not to be missed.' Willy Wo-Lap, Senior China Analyst at CNN's Hong Kong office and author of The Era of Jiang Zemin.'When he warns that China's two centuries of troubles are still not over, we had better take notice.' Andrew J. Nathan, Professor of Political Science, Columbia University; Co-Editor, The Tiananmen Papers.

Fully revised and updated edition covering China's new membership of the WTO and with a new introduction. 'Damning data and persuasive arguments that should set some Communist knees a-knocking.' Kirkus Reviews'A compelling account of the rot in China's institutions and the forces at work to end the Communist Party's monopoly on power.' James A. Dorn, Cato Institute, Washington D. C., Co-Editor of China's future: Constructive Partner or Emerging Threat? 'Quite simply the best book I know about China's future. Gordon Chang writes marvellously and knows China well. I hope everyone concerned with that country will pay careful consideration to what he sees ahead.' Arthur Waldron, Director of Asian Studies, American Enterprise Institute; Lauder Professor of International Relations, University of Pennsylvania.'A tour de force not to be missed.' Willy Wo-Lap, Senior China Analyst at CNN's Hong Kong office and author of The Era of Jiang Zemin.'When he warns that China's two centuries of troubles are still not over, we had better take notice.' Andrew J. Nathan, Professor of Political Science, Columbia University; Co-Editor, The Tiananmen Papers.

The recent downturn in the Chinese economy has become a focal point of global attention, with some analysts warning that China is edging dangerously close to economic meltdown. Is it possible that the second largest economy in the world could collapse and drag the rest of the world with it? In this penetrating essay, Ann Lee explains both why China's economy will not sink us all and the policy options on which it is drawing on to mitigate against such a catastrophic scenario. Dissecting with realistic clarity the challenges facing the Chinese economy, she makes a compelling case for its continued robustness in multiple sectors in the years ahead.

A controversial look at the impending Chinese economic collapse—the history behind it, its contemporary causes, and its dire implications for the global economy All the experts agree: the 21st century belongs to China. Given America's looming insolvency and the possibility of the collapse of the U.S. dollar, who can doubt that China is poised to take over the role of economic superpower? Written by political economist and leading financial journalist James Gorrie, this book offers a highly controversial, contrarian view of contemporary China. Drawing upon a wealth of historical and up-to-the-minute data, Gorrie makes a strong case that China, itself, is on the verge of an economic crisis of epic proportions. He explains how, caught in a recurrent boom/bust cycle that has played itself out several times over the past sixty years, China is again approaching total economic and social collapse. But with one important difference this time: they may very well take the entire global economy down with them. Explores the Chinese communist party's unfortunate history of making costly and very bloody mistakes on an enormous scale One-by-one Gorrie analyzes those critical mistakes and explains how they may lead to economic collapse in China and global depression Describes Chinese "cannibal capitalism," and where its massive abuse of the country's environment, people, and arable lands is leading that country and the world economy Chronicles China's history of recurring economic crisis and explains why all the evidence suggests that history is about to repeat itself

The United States and China are locked in a “cold tech war,” and the winner will end up dominating the twenty-first century. Beijing was not considered a tech contender a decade ago. Now, some call it a leader. America is already behind in critical areas. It is no surprise how Chinese leaders made their regime a tech powerhouse. They first developed and then implemented multiyear plans and projects, adopting a determined, methodical, and disciplined approach. As a result, China’s political leaders and their army of technocrats could soon possess the technologies of tomorrow. America can still catch up. Unfortunately, Americans, focused on other matters, are not meeting the challenges China presents. A whole-of-society mobilization will be necessary for the U.S. to regain what it once had: control of cutting-edge technologies. This is how America got to the moon, and this is the key to winning this century. Americans may not like the fact that they’re once again in a Cold War–type struggle, but they will either adjust to that reality or get left behind.

A provocative perspective on the fragile fundamentals, and forces for resilience, in the Chinese economy, and a forecast for the future on alternate scenarios of collapse and ascendance.

Nuclear Showdown published by Asia expert, Gordon Chang, was of the first books to exploire the full extent of the North Korean nuclear threat, its origins, international implications, and solutions. The United States is the mightiest nation in history, yet for six decades one of the world's weakest states has challenged the superpower and kept it at bay. Today, that country also threatens to change the course of human events with an act of unimaginable devastation. Nuclear Showdown analyses the failed society that has become the gravest threat to America and international order: North Korea. Chang's insightful book reveals the full horror of the crisis threatening to turn Asia into the world's next battleground. How can North Korea be stopped? No one seems to have an answer. For more than half a century, policymakers have failed when it comes to subjugating Kim Il Sung and his son, Kim Jong Il. Nuclear Showdown proposes a solution that can defuse the standoff once and for all.

Few issues affect the future of China--and hence all the nations that interact with China--more than the nature of its ruling party and government. In this timely study, David Shambaugh assesses the strengths and weaknesses, durability, adaptability, and potential longevity of China's Communist Party (CCP). He argues that although the CCP has been in a protracted state of atrophy, it has undertaken a number of adaptive measures aimed at reinventing itself and strengthening its rule. Shambaugh's investigation draws on a unique set of inner-Party documents and interviews, and he finds that China's Communist Party is resilient and will continue to retain its grip on power. Copub: Woodrow Wilson Center Press

A sequel to the best-selling Currency Wars predicts a coming collapse of the monetary system while counseling investors on how to survive it, arguing that the dollar will be at the center of a crisis that will differentiate money from wealth.

What would happen if the maniacal tyranny in Pyongyang took over the vibrant democracy of South Korea? Today, there is a real possibility that the destitute North Korean regime will soon dominate its thriving southern neighbor, with help from the government in Seoul itself. More than any South Korean president before him, Moon Jae-in is intent on achieving Korean union, even if it’s done on Pyongyang’s terms. To that end, he has been making South Korea compatible with the totalitarian North, and distinctly less free. He is also removing defenses to infiltration and invasion and taking steps to end his country’s only real guarantee of security, the alliance with the United States. If Moon’s policy results in handing Kim Jong Un a “final victory” and South Korea falls to despotism, America will lose the anchor of its western defense perimeter, and the free world will be at risk.

How will China reform its economy as it aspires to become the next economic superpower? It’s clear that China is the world’s next economic superpower. But what isn’t so clear is how China will get there by the middle of this century. It now faces tremendous challenges such as fostering innovation, dealing with ageing problem and coping with a less accommodative global environment. In this book, economists from China’s leading university and America’s best-known think tank offer in depth analyses of these challenges. Does China have enough talent and right policy and institutional mix to transit from input-driven to innovation-driven economy? What does ageing mean, in terms of labor supply, consumption demand and social welfare expenditure? Can China contain the environmental and climate change risks? How should the financial system be transformed in order to continuously support economic growth and keep financial risks under control? What fiscal reforms are required in order to balance between economic efficiency and social harmony? What roles should the state-owned enterprises play in the future Chinese economy? In addition, how will technological competition between the United States and China affect each country’s development? Will the Chinese yuan emerge as a major reserve currency, and would this destabilize the international financial system? What will be China’s role in the international economic institutions? And will the United States and other established powers accept a growing role for China and the rest of the developing world in the governance of global institutions such as the World Trade Organization and the International Monetary Fund, or will the world devolve into competing blocs? This book provides unique insights into independent analyses and policy recommendations by a group of top Chinese and American scholars. Whether China succeeds or fails in economic reform will have a large impact, not just on China’s development, but also on stability and prosperity for the whole world.

Unbundles corruption into different types, examining corruption as access money in China through a comparative-historical lens.

"Explains how China, as the world's largest emerging market, will impact global economic growth, FDI flows, energy consumption, climate change, and other arenas, with a proposed strategic framework that would guide the country's rise while maximizing positive impacts and minimizing any negative externalities"--Provided by publisher.

For more than a century, no US adversary or coalition of adversaries - not Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan, or the Soviet Union - has ever reached sixty percent of US GDP. China is the sole exception, and it is fast emerging into a global superpower that could rival, if not eclipse, the United States. What does China want, does it have a grand strategy to achieve it, and what should the United States do about it? In The Long Game, Rush Doshi draws from a rich base of Chinese primary sources, including decades worth of party documents, leaked materials, memoirs by party leaders, and a careful analysis of China's conduct to provide a history of China's grand strategy since the end of the Cold War. Taking readers behind the Party's closed doors, he uncovers Beijing's long, methodical game to displace America from its hegemonic position in both the East Asia regional and global orders through three sequential "strategies of displacement." Beginning in the 1980s, China focused for two decades on "hiding capabilities and biding time." After the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, it became more assertive regionally, following a policy of "actively accomplishing something." Finally, in the aftermath populist elections of 2016, China shifted to an even more aggressive strategy for undermining US hegemony, adopting the phrase "great changes unseen in century." After charting how China's long game has evolved, Doshi offers a comprehensive yet asymmetric plan for an effective US response. Ironically, his proposed approach takes a page from Beijing's own strategic playbook to undermine China's ambitions and strengthen American order without competing dollar-for-dollar, ship-for-ship, or loan-for-loan.

A stunning inside look at how and why the foundations upon which China has built the world’s second largest economy, have started to crumble. Over the course of a decade spent reporting on the ground in China as a financial journalist, Dinny McMahon gradually came to the conclusion that the widely held belief in China’s inevitable economic ascent is dangerously wrong. In this unprecedented deep dive, McMahon shows how, lurking behind the illusion of prosperity, China’s economic growth has been built on a staggering mountain of debt. While stories of newly built but empty cities, white elephant state projects, and a byzantine shadow banking system, have all become a regular fixture in the press in recent years, McMahon goes beyond the headlines to explain how such waste has been allowed to flourish, and why one of the most powerful governments in the world has been at a loss to stop it. Through the stories of ordinary Chinese citizens, McMahon tries to make sense of the unique—and often bizarre—mechanics of the Chinese economy, whether it be the state’s addiction to appropriating land from poor farmers; or why a Chinese entrepreneur decided it was cheaper to move his yarn factory to South Carolina; or why ambitious Chinese mayors build ghost cities; or why the Chinese bureaucracy was able to stare down Beijing’s attempts to break up the state’s pointless monopoly over the distribution of table salt. Debt, entrenched vested interests, a frenzy of speculation, and an aging population are all pushing China toward an economic reckoning. China’s Great Wall of Debt unravels an incredibly complex and opaque economy, one whose fortunes—for better or worse—will shape the globe like never before.

Focuses on China's long-term pattern of growth and employment, demographic shifts, and rural-urban migration, its agricultural trade and local elections, China's banking sector reform and its fiscal sustainability, its environmental concerns, and much more.

Populist Authoritarianism focuses on the Chinese Communist Party, which governs the world's largest population in a single-party authoritarian state. Wenfang Tang attempts to explain the seemingly contradictory trends of the increasing number of protests on the one hand, and the results of public opinion surveys that consistently show strong government support on the other hand. The book points to the continuity from the CCP's revolutionary experiences to its current governing style, even though China has changed in many ways on the surface in the post-Mao era. The book proposes a theoretical framework of Populist Authoritarianism with six key elements, including the Mass Line ideology, accumulation of social capital, public political activism and contentious politics, a hyper-responsive government, weak political and civil institutions, and a high level of regime trust. These traits of Populist Authoritarianism are supported by empirical evidence drawn from multiple public opinion surveys conducted from 1987 to 2015. Although the CCP currently enjoys strong public support, such a system is inherently vulnerable due to its institutional deficiency. Public opinion can swing violently due to policy failure and the up and down of a leader or an elite faction. The drastic change of public opinion cannot be filtered through political institutions such as elections and the rule of law, creating system-wide political earthquakes.

“An entertaining, if cautionary, tale of Western business woes in China, stretching back seven hundred years” (The Wall Street Journal). In The China Dream, acclaimed business journalist Joe Studwell challenges the predictions that China will become an economic juggernaut on the world stage in the twenty-first century—and instead foresees an economic crisis. Tracing the most recent developments in China from Deng Xiaoping’s “liberalization” of its market in the 1980s through the opening of its economy to foreign investment in the 1990s, Studwell examines the roadblocks to the continuation of the country’s unprecedented expansion and why its economy will fail once more—but this time, harder than ever before, and with potentially catastrophic results. Provocative and flawlessly researched, The China Dream analyzes what’s really going on in China—and what we can do to prepare for the coming crisis. “The much-needed antidote to the delusions . . . about the riches to be made from investing and selling in China. Brimming with . . . statistics.” —The Washington Post “[A] detailed account . . . An excellent examination of the political and economic history of China, fascinating and mostly unknown to Westerners.” —Booklist (starred review) “Lays bare much of the stuff and nonsense that surrounds the China dream, and traces how myth and misunderstandings—compounded by hype and lashings of snake oil—have bewitched some of the world’s most respected corporations and led them to ruin the proverbial $1.3 billion consumer market . . . As such, it deserves to help redefine the debate on the nature of the China market.” —James Kynge, China bureau chief of the Financial Times